GaMe®
Legacy Member
Estofex lvl 1 (voor tornado's) ligt net over de grens met Duitsland morgen. Toch waarschuwt het KMI voor hevig onweer in het oosten van ons land.
Central Germany to southern Benelux
As the frontal wave passes by, a tongue of rich low-level moisture will advect north-eastward into western Germany. Although lapse rates are weak, QG forcing ahead of an approaching mid-level jet streak may provide enough lift to enable CAPE. Latest GFS indeed indicates weak CAPE during the day. Given the strong forcing and weak CIN, showers and thunderstorms are expected. Most updrafts will be weak due to the weak CAPE. However, vertical wind shear will increase along the northern nose o the moist air mass due to the approaching jet streak, and deep-layer vertical wind shear may exceed 20 m/s in the late afternoon hours. Additionally, the 0-1 km bulk shear will be strong along the warm front (10 m/s) and favourable veering profiles are expected. Some storms may therefore evolve into supercells capable of producing tornadoes. The main thread seems to exist in the afternoon and evening hours, when the mid-level jet approaches and the overlap of vertical wind shear and CAPE will be greatest. However, the greatest uncertainty will be the cloud-coverage and rain leading to a cool boundary-layer and weak chanced for thunderstorms. Later observations will indicate if the scenario of storms will really come true.
Central Germany to southern Benelux
As the frontal wave passes by, a tongue of rich low-level moisture will advect north-eastward into western Germany. Although lapse rates are weak, QG forcing ahead of an approaching mid-level jet streak may provide enough lift to enable CAPE. Latest GFS indeed indicates weak CAPE during the day. Given the strong forcing and weak CIN, showers and thunderstorms are expected. Most updrafts will be weak due to the weak CAPE. However, vertical wind shear will increase along the northern nose o the moist air mass due to the approaching jet streak, and deep-layer vertical wind shear may exceed 20 m/s in the late afternoon hours. Additionally, the 0-1 km bulk shear will be strong along the warm front (10 m/s) and favourable veering profiles are expected. Some storms may therefore evolve into supercells capable of producing tornadoes. The main thread seems to exist in the afternoon and evening hours, when the mid-level jet approaches and the overlap of vertical wind shear and CAPE will be greatest. However, the greatest uncertainty will be the cloud-coverage and rain leading to a cool boundary-layer and weak chanced for thunderstorms. Later observations will indicate if the scenario of storms will really come true.
