Although the position of punter has received more attention in the last couple of years, it still remains one of the most undervalued positions in the league.
But underneath the calm and uncompelling surface, there has been a storm brewing. A war among the unnoticed, that started with this article: Sam Koch Has Changed the Punting Game.
For the more visually inclined, there’s a terrific clip of it as well
In it, Sam Koch is said to have been revolutionizing the NFL punting game with his wide arsenal of trick punts and misleading kicks. Of course this elicited the response of other punters, like Kluwe and Hekker, who stated while those trick punts are valuable, they're not new, nor a solid base strategy, merely a good -great- change of pace.
Now, I’ve always been interested in Special Teams and punters in particular. I know it’s not the most flashy; most punts only end up in a highlight reel when someone messed up, or it's a big return. In which case the punter usually could’ve done better.
But that's exactly what draws me to the position. I’ve reblogged a post about the loneliness of a goalkeeper in soccer, and there are an incredible amount of similarities, between goalkeepers and kickers, but also punters.
That, and the horrible performance on the Cardinals’ Special Team last year prompted me to check out teams who weren’t getting*killed by their punter (be still, my heart). And I couldn't help but marvel.
I decided to take a look at the numbers. I wanted to see where exactly Koch shone. There always is that one stat that really shows why someone is being heralded. And that is where things get peculiar.
I’ve compiled the stats of 7 punters: Koch, Hekker, Lechler, King, Martin, Anger and Butler. I know: One of these guys is not like the other. These weren't chosen randomly, I've added a couple in the process. Lechler was my good-to-average reference point, and Butler is the (rock) bottom line. King, Martin and Anger were added by popular demand, and because they're often mentioned as the top of their position.
Stats in Google Sheet.
First off, I took a look at the punter's QBR: Net Average. This is the most important stat for punters, and one they themselves use to compare their performances. Simply put, it's the total yards that a punt gains for a certain team after the return is factored in, and touchback are counted as -20.
And in that category, Koch performed excellent. A NA of 39.9 yards this year, which was a low for him. It was an incredible 43.3 yards in 2015, the year of The Revolution. I've compiled an Average Net Average (ANA) for every punter's last 3 years, and Koch's ANA is 42.
That is astounding. When comparing that to the others, you’ll quickly see just how astounding it is. Lechler’s is 39.2 and King’s is a respectable 40.7. Anger is at 40.6. All almost 2 yards short of Koch's mark.
For reference, Butler’s ANA is 35.9, and has never been above 37.*Koch averages 6 yards more than Butler each time he punts.
And Johnny Hekker’s Average Net Average is 44. Wait, what? Yes, Hekker not only bests Koch, but does it by even 2 yards more. And that’s his average over three years. This year, his Net Average was 46. Surprisingly to me, Sam Martin practically tied Koch with 42.1.
Okay. So that's Net Average. But the article mentions a good punter has the ability to reduce return yardage. In fact, they specifically get into how much more difficult it is for opposing teams to return on those trick punts, drawing more fair catches. So let’s take a look.
Koch had 375 Return Yards in 2016.*Which is a low for him, previous years, he did even better. I’ve divided the return yards with the amount of punts, to see how many return yards everyone gets per punt. Koch scores a 4.7 in this category. Which again, is excellent.
Butler and Lechler get 6.6 return yards per punt, King an even 5, Martin 3.4 and Hekker… 1.6. That’s otherworldly. Only Anger really comes close, with 1.8. So again, Koch is great, but not as good as Hekker. Even if we use Koch's numbers from 2015 (2.4), he still would fall short. Compared to Butler, Hekker got 5 less return yards per punt. Which in part explains the enormous gap in Net Average.
Another important stat is how many times you can drop the ball behind the opponent’s 20 yard line.For this, I've taken the percentage of punts that lands in that zone. Again, the numbers are telling. 46% of Koch’s punts end up behind the 20 yard line. For Butler, that’s 31.3, Lechler is at 41.7 and King at 42.0. And Hekker is at 52, but ruling them all is Anger, with 52.9. The only two punters in the NFL to get over 50%.
Roughly speaking, for Butler that's 1/3 of punts, for Hekker and Anger, that's half.
There is one category Koch leads decidedly, which is punts Out Of Bounds. You have to both be accurate and have the leg power to do that, and still not give up more Net Average. But even with those OOB punts, he did have more yards returned on him.
The longest punt doesn't really matter, other than to prove leg strength. And in that regard it's worth noting that while the others hover around 60 yards, Koch has a year longest of 68, and Hekker one of 78 yards. I think I tweaked my hamstring just thinking about that.
So, surprisingly, I set out to prove that Koch is the best punter in the NFL, and ended up finding that Johnny Hekker at this time is way above everyone else. Bryan Anger comes very close, but just lacks the Net Average, and Sam Martin is excellent in most any category, but not the top in a single one.
Of course Hekker isn't the best punter in the league in every single category, but all things considered, he does look like the punter to beat. He's been doing it for a couple of years, and this year seems to be his best so far. And the numbers reflect that.
