Bobbofitos with a nice writeup from his leggopoker.com blog:
Cliff notes are Tom Dwan plays one of the most amazing hands ever. I wanted to break it down, since a few people IMed me about it, I had to watch it, and it is one of those hands that just meets the hype. So it very much is blog-worthy. In the hand...
8-handed, 400-800 (200a) Barry G opens UTG w/ AA to 2500. Everyone (yes, everyone) calls, including Dwan UTG+1 w/ QTss and Peter Eastgate in the SB w 42o. Suits are irrelevant, largely. I think stacks are Eastgate with 500k, Dwan covers, and Barry has anywhere 170k-190k range. (Likely near the min buyin, a little lower)
So the pot on the flop is 21,600. Flop comes T22r, (Dwan has a bdoor fd) and the blinds check to Barry. Barry bets 10k, and Dwan raises to 37,300. Eastgate cold calls out of the SB, and Barry calls ending action.
Turn, 133,500$ pot, is a dud, (7) and both people check to Dwan. He bets 104,200 and everyone folds. Literally w-t-f. Classically, Gabe says, "I don't know what he's doing" on the flop, which pretty much sums things up perfectly. Anyway, here goes:
The beauty of poker is everyone can play like a retard, and the person least retarded (or most) wins - meaning, I feel everyone made a fundamental error at some point(s) in the hand, but since Dwan forced the biggest mistake (both better hands to fold in a giant pot) clearly he turned an ABC (wrong) situation into the "perfect play". Truly amazing work.
Essentially, Barry G should not be betting AA on a type 0 board 8 (!!!) ways, since: 1. people should give way too much credit to an OP there given how tight, utg open, and on that board cbetting into 8(!) people. further, there isn't a ton of value except vs an underpair or a T; he's way ahead most of the time and just value stacking himself to a 2 always by betting (since he had like 10 PSR, not shallow but also given it's so multiway not deep). his hand doesn't mind a freecard, he's never getting 3 streets from worse. if there was a draw, fine, but there isn't - it's a type 0 game of chicken.
he needs to check his hand, PSR of like 10:1 he's getting the money in by betting, and it's really unclear if he should be aiming to go for value. (For the record, given his image and the current situation, I feel its fundamentally incorrect for him to be betting any hand there)
2. durr should be folding there always, he has top pair with all those people to act against a range at WORST of like TT+, AK/AQ/KQ, with those unpaired hands v low likelihood cbetting - raising seems suicidal. except ofc if he wants to turn it into a bluff later which turns the hand into a major coup, but this also seems like such a tough spot to bluff.
3. eastgate, once he checks, has no other option but cold calling; durrr's raise is strong, but wtf he has trips, likely has barry beat except vs TT. the problem is oop this reveals his hand and technically should let his opponents play perfectly, which ends up hurting him, since he turns it into a bluff catcher where he should be going for value. if im him, i dont expect barry to bet alot, and a lead in that spot could look like a ten thinking it's good and wanting to thin the field. which in turn could get played with/no one is folding showdown for 1 bet vs HIM there
on the turn way it's played durr's hand looks like trips, and 42 is weakest trips, i think he has to fold. durr is crazy so he's probably the one one that you should consider putting 500bb in there.
barry probably should've mucked to the cold call of eastgate - what else could he have. he's calling ~27k to spike a 2 outer (situationally, a 1 outer) and durr didn't stop bluffing - it's one thing if they could check it down so that immediate odds offered + times ahead + small suckout equity make it a call, but the problem is he was ahead but still folded. so thats a RE fold. it's a common mistake you see online (and live, obv) that people call 1 street fold the next.
he needs to make up his mind on the flop, more or less with his PSR, unless he knows durr well enough (high bluff frequency, not folding, low bluff frequency, folding) but the gist is even vs high bluffers in THAT spot how can he have a bluff? again, only person he should really have considered getting it in would be durr since he's the only one capable of bluffing. problem is capable of bluffing prob. aligns natural balancing w/ durr ACTUALLY having 2x or TT. one thing working against durr is that he called raise from 1st seat, probably can only have A2s, and barry had 2 aces.. really not a lot of 2x in durr's range from Barry's POV, which is why, again given his stack size, he truly should've considered (once calling the flop raise) to commit on the turn.
the only thing i can think of that made durr bluff was he had a ten, and he felt barry would only commit with TT, so just 1 combo, so it was profitable. im just blown away tho since i think they all made fundamental flop mistakes but durr salvaged it big time. in conclusion, WOW.
mijn punt was maar: als ze hun hand checken gaat er geen geld meer in de pot, als ze uitbetten gaat ge folden.