NotoriousP
Well-known member
Prosus aandeelhouders minder blij met de deal. 
Kleine Beursfeiten
- Onderwerp starter Tweak37
- Startdatum
Spooky
Well-known member
Tencent -4% speelt ook natuurlijkProsus aandeelhouders minder blij met de deal.
Goed mogelijk maar ben tevreden met 11,1€ naar 19€.
Ik had RxSight hier al eens kort vermeld als onderdeel van mijn portfolio (Med Tech sector). Interessante speler met typisch razor/blade model. Uiteraard higher risk want small cap (1.3B $ EV) en niche market met voortdurend nieuwe innovatie, dus beschouw dit niet als een buy recommendation (in feite geen van mijn posts), eerder als een idea generator.
Maar heb op een ander forum een uitgebreidere write-up gedaan die ik hier ook even deel:
Activity:
RxSight operates in the premium cataract surgery market. A cataract is a cloudy area in the lens of your eye and reduces the quality of your vision. Cataract develops slowly over time and mainly affects people over the age of 60 with estimates of around 50% of the total population eventually develops cataract.
Treatment is to replace your natural lens with an intraocular lens (IOL). The traditional treatment is through a fixed lens (reimbursed by insurance) implying that the prescription can no longer be changed after the surgery.
RxSight operates in the premium IOL market (not covered by insurance) and has developed a so-called LAL (Light Adjustable Lens) that allows you to change the prescription up to 3 times after the initial surgery before “fixing” it, ensuring that you get the best vision possible. While there are other players in the premium IOL market, RxSight is currently the only player in the market offering such a post-surgery adjustable lens.
Business Model:
The typical razor/blade model. The LDD (Light Delivery Device) is sold at an average price of 130K $ with 30% gross margins. The LAL (Light adjustable lens = consumables) are sold at an average price of 1K $ with 85% gross margins.
The LDD are typically paid in cash by ophthalmologists and creates the switching costs. Once the investment has been made, the ophthalmologists have all the incentives to recover their investment.
The unit economics are attractive and on average, the ophthalmologists have earned back their investment within 6 months, and anything after that is pure profit. The total cost for the patient is a couple thousands $ per lens and is paid out of pocket.
I like how all the incentives align: the ophthalmologists have financial incentives as it can charge a premium price whereas the patients have the incentives as it ultimately leads to the best outcome with the best vision.
TAM:
The premium IOL market in the US is around 1.3B $ annually. RxSight has a revenue run rate of 130M $ and currently captures 10% of the market (up from 0% a couple years ago). Management’s longer-term target is to capture 50% of the market, implying it could 5x LAL revenue from here.
RxSight is not only capturing share in the premium IOL market but also expanding the market. Certain patients, that without RxSight would have chosen the basic reimbursable IOL, are now also opting for RxSight.
More importantly, 80% of the premium IOL market is outside of the US and concentrated in approx. 20 markets in Europe and Asia. RxSight is still waiting for approvals and some of those are expected in 2025.
Summary:
US: 1.3B $ TAM, 130M $ captured → 10% share
Out of US: 6.5B $ TAM, negligible share.
Numbers:
Revenue:
2021: 23M $
2022: 49M $ (+117%)
2023: 89M $ (+82%)
2024: 140M $ estimated (+58%)
It is important to differentiate between the LDD and the LAL. The LDD revenue (lower margin) for 2024 is estimated at 41M $ growing 28% YoY. The LAL revenue (higher margin) is estimated at 99M $ growing 84% (vs 116% in 2023). Therefore while top line growth is slowing, the more attractive business segment is growing at a much faster clip.
The LDD installed base is currently at 888 units and grew 51% in the last quarter. There are around 10.000 cataract surgeons in the US. The realistic installed base TAM is a bit lower as one office can hold multiple cataract surgeons (and you won’t need more than 1 LDD per office). In one of the conferences, management mentioned that around 1.5K surgeons are currently doing LAL treatments, implying 15% cataract surgeon penetration.
The utilization (comparable with the NRR in SaaS) has been growing consistently in the mid to high teens over the last couple of years. Surgeons are consistently doing more procedures per LDD.
Gross margins in most recent quarter were 71%, up from 61% in 2023 and 43% in 2022. As the company matures, gross margins should be higher than 80% as most of the revenue will be derived from the LAL.
The company is not yet profitable with an operating margin of -26% in the last quarter. This is quickly improving from -56% in 2023 and -129% in 2022. Considering the business model, long-term margins between 25% and 35% appear realistic.
Geographically, they are really only generating revenue in the US and Canada now. They operate with a direct sales force in the US whereas they work with distributors in Canada. Management expects several regulatory approvals in 2025 for Europe and Asia and while the US will inevitably slow down (law of large numbers), the international opportunity is just getting started. The unit economics should be similar in those markets.
Valuation:
With a market cap or 1.6B $ and a net cash position of 0.23B $, the current enterprise value is 1.35B $. EV/S for 2024 is 9.6x. If we look forward, I am estimating 192M $ revenue in 2025 (+36%), RxSight is trading at a forward revenue of 7x. If RxSight can ultimately achieve those 25-35% long-term margins, I believe that’s a relatively attractive valuation.
Management:
CEO Ron Kurtz has significant experience in the sector and his track record is one of the reasons I am bullish. He co-founded IntraLase Corp and IPO’d the business in 2004. IntraLase ultimately got acquired by Advanced Medical Optics. Afterwards, he became CEO of LensX, which then got acquired by Alcon, one of the main competitors of RxSight. He ran the Lens division for Alcon until he became CEO of RxSight. Given the history, I won’t be surprised if RxSight also end up getting acquired.
Had eerder mijn positie RXST gehalveerd aan 33,86$ en wil nu lager terugkopen. Niet geaudite earnings zijn reeds bekend maar morgen de officiële. Mogelijk morgen goed nieuws mbt goedkeuring in Europa of Azië of zo, en de koers explodeert. Dat samen met analyse van Racing_Genk en technisch kantelpunt is mij het “gokje” waard.
Brt
Banned
Premarket +5%, blijkbaar niet de enige die aan het gokken is....
Toch absurde waarderingen: Crox kan met fcf van 3 jaar volledig opgekocht worden.
Rxsight: indien groei blijft behouden, indien er een positieve fcf komt, indien ..... dat gaat nog heel lang duren (indien alles dan nog goed gaat) vooraleer die met hun fcf bedrijf vd beurs gaan kunnen halen....Totaal niet logisch die waarderingen.
Door RXST op 31/01/2025 te verkopen, met het vrijgekomen geld Melexis te kopen op 05/02/2025, dit vervolgens weer te verkopen op 20/02/2025, en tenslotte met dat vrijgekomen geld terug RXST te kopen, heb ik nu RXST aan 23,25% korting kunnen terugkopen. Mooi toch? Mijn excelleke houdt alle ratio’s bij.
FernandoFreecashflow
Member
This math ain't mathing
NotoriousP
Well-known member
Weer mooie rode dag, +5% op de VIX. Toch alvast wat MSTR calls bijkopen.
ADM blijft toch mooi gaan. Mogelijk dat we toch de bodem gezien hebben. Zat alvast op de onderkant van de meer dan 40-jarige trend.
NotoriousP
Well-known member
China toch nog steeds cheap in mijn ogen...
nullarbor
Member
Op 1,5 maand tijd gaat de HSI meer dan 25% omhoog, dat is gewoon te snel en stinkt naar FOMO. Als je er op tijd bij was is dat geen probleem, maar nu ga ik daar niets kopen tot het wat afkoelt alleszinds.
NotoriousP
Well-known member
Ja fair punt, was in september ook zo. 2 aankondigingen, alles 20-40% omhoog. 2 maand later terug aan de vorige prijzen...
Ik koop op de dieptepunten altijd wat calls bij, moet er alleen aan denken die ook effectief terug te verkopen na wat optimisme
Ik koop op de dieptepunten altijd wat calls bij, moet er alleen aan denken die ook effectief terug te verkopen na wat optimisme
NotoriousP
Well-known member
Wat was me dit een dagske. Na de grote stijging van Crocs, nu de grotere stijging van Just Eat Takeaway. Verder dit jaar mooie gains op TMDX, TEM, UBER, Melexis, FMC en BABA. Tot nu toe dit jaar dus een voltreffer. YTD 19,57%. Hopelijk blijft het zo verder gaan. Morgenavond duimen voor RXST. Heb er een goed oog in. Moest het toch tegenvallen, kan ik nog altijd verdubbelen aan 15-20$. Voila, tot morgen.
FernandoFreecashflow
Member
Sinds je 10 dagen geleden zei
heb je 29 posts gemaakt. WowzersEn nu stop ik met posten vandaag en ga ik wat rustiger aan doen met posten de komende tijd. Iedereen gelukkig
FernandoFreecashflow
Member
You were saying?@FernandoFreecashflow al +10% op die calls.
NotoriousP
Well-known member
Lang gewacht met uw antwoord he
komt wel goed, zullen het snel beter doen dan Crox.contextbinder
Well-known member
Kanonstart richting 0 is ingezet, mss Donald bellen - op 10s kan hij dat oplossen.
