The current frontline dynamics reveal active attempts by Russian forces, particularly in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction, as well as the northern and southern areas of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mariinka to improve their tactical situation.
Despite lacking overwhelming advantages and facing constraints in offensive capabilities, Frontelligence Insight anticipates that Russian forces might be able to achieve partial success in reducing the gains made by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the summer and fall campaigns.
Frontelligence Insight also has acquired documents indicating that Russia has created Storm-V units. According to these documents, units will predominantly consist of fit-for-service convicts who have signed contracts with the Ministry of Defense. The recruitment priority for Storm-V is set for the Airborne Troops (VDV), although it appears that some motor rifle units will also incorporate Storm-V units. Presently, it remains unclear how these units differ from the existing Storm-Z companies.
Avdiivka
The overall situation for the Ukrainian forces has stabilized, as the Russian offensive appears to have reached its peak. Russian forces have lost eager to assault and the number of operational equipment has been severely reduced. Russians were also unable to develop their success in the industrial zone, south of Avdiivka.
At the same time, the logistical situation in Avdiivka has worsened for Ukrainian forces. Reports confirm that Russian forces are employing FPV drones with thermal/night vision cameras, complicating nighttime supply efforts. As a result, logistical challenges are persistent, despite the overall military situation stabilizing.
Mari’nka
The situation in Mari’nka is critical. Although specific details cannot be disclosed, our analysis indicates that the fall of Mari’nka is likely a matter of time. The collapse of Mari’nka can create operational opportunities for Russian forces toward Kurakhove and Vuhledar. If Russians will force Vuheldar defenders to retreat, they will be able to restore a crucial logistical railroad line, significantly reducing transportation times and enabling more mobile movements of units.
Bakhmut area
In the Bakhmut area, challenges persist as Russian forces continue to have limited and localized successes near Khromove and Klischiivka. While the majority of their attacks have been successfully repelled with incurred losses, the overall outlook is less than optimistic. There is a potential risk that Ukrainian defenders may cede some previously gained positions from the summer-fall campaign. Given the current circumstances, the likelihood of a substantial breakthrough or a collapse is low at the moment.
Spirne
In the Spirne area, for the past week, Russians continued to launch assaults with small tactical groups, experiencing losses without achieving any tangible results. The overall situation appears to be stable in this area of the frontline.
Lyman-Kupyansk area
Russian forces persist in pressing both the Lyman and Kupyansk directions. Currently, their efforts have not yielded significant results, and they have incurred tangible losses. Our analysis indicates that Russia currently views this direction as secondary. Despite this, continuous assaults persist in the Lyman and Kupyansk directions. If Russians find success in the Bakhmut area, we anticipate a potential intensification of pressure in the Lyman and Kupyansk directions.
Summary
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are facing challenges entering the harsh winter season, marked by a scarcity of artillery ammunition, fatigue following an extensive summer-fall campaign, the withholding of aid by the US Congress, and failure to deliver the necessary amount of ammo by European partners, among other factors. Despite the overall unfavorable situation for the AFU, we assess that Russian forces are unlikely to execute another army-level assault. Drawing insights from experience in Avdiivka, where substantial commitments of armored and infantry units yielded limited gains, we do not anticipate significant breakthroughs or defense collapses in the near term.
Given the present disposition and allocation of Russian resources, there is a likelihood of observing battalion, brigade, and corps-level operations aimed at enhancing tactical situations and reclaiming lost positions from the summer and fall of 2023. The success of these operations, if executed without depleting the newly formed units, could potentially set the stage for a larger spring offensive in 2024.
Despite the apparent grimness, the reality remains that Russian forces are unlikely to achieve a critical strategic shift in the war during the upcoming winter or even the spring. However, this does not diminish the urgency for both Ukraine and its allies to implement decisive measures to gain the upper hand.