http://twitdoc.com/upload/standardpoors/eurohouseprices.pdf
Het stukje uit het artikel over België:
Belgian Property Prices Are Stabilizing
The housing market in Belgium is likely to stagnate this year and grow only marginally in 2014 amid a weak economic
outlook. Gloomy income and employment prospects are limiting demand for new dwellings, although a shortage of
housing should prevent a slump in the longer term. We forecast that house prices will rise only marginally by 0.5% this
year and by 1.5% in 2014 (see table 2).
Recent trends
Market statistics provided by Belgian notaries show that the average price for a standard home in Belgium increased
by 1.1% over the first half of 2013, while the average price for an apartment stagnated. These statistics also indicate
that transactions stabilized in the second quarter of 2013 after falling 5.1% year on year in the first quarter, suggesting
that Belgian households remained reluctant to spend in the first half of 2013.
Tougher access to mortgage lending markets has also eroded housing demand. Mortgage credit growth, although still
positive, slowed in May this year (see chart 1). Total outstanding mortgage credit increased by just 4.0% year on year,
from the double-digit growth experienced before the 2008 global financial crisis. Nevertheless, banks are still extending
credit. Historically low interest rates, with average rates on new loans averaging about 3.4% in May 2013, are
supporting households' capacity to borrow. Still, as prices soften, activity in the construction sector is slowing.
Cumulative dwelling permits over the past 12 months fell by 10% in April 2013 on a year earlier to 44,651.
Future trends
We expect very little growth in house prices in nominal terms, and negative growth in real terms over the next few
quarters. In the short term, we think that consumer concerns over job security will continue to curtail Belgian
households' purchasing intentions. Consumers are still pessimistic about the country's economic performance and their
own finances for the coming 12 months. The June consumer confidence indicator provided by the National Bank of
Belgium rose slightly to -18 in June--for the third consecutive month--but remains eight points lower than in June
Given the expected rise in unemployment both this year and next, we anticipate only a slight improvement in
household confidence and thereby in home purchasing intentions.
Over the longer term, however, we don't expect a downturn in Belgium's housing market. The ratio of house prices to
incomes suggests homes are still among the most affordable in the eurozone (European Economic and Monetary
Union). The affordability ratio was 47% above its long-term average in March 2013. Three factors are limiting a market
downturn, in our view. First, Belgian household debt is still moderate at 55% of GDP in December 2012, which is well
below the European average of 65%. This is because large down-payments helped households keep up with price
increases in boom years. Second, low interest rates are still supporting household borrowing capacity. Third, inelastic
supply and high demand should continue to broadly underpin Belgium's housing market. On the demand side,
demographic trends are fueling demand. The population has expanded by 10% since 1991, and between 2007 and
2020 it should increase at a higher pace at an annual average of 0.75%, according to the Federal Planning Bureau.
Furthermore, estimates by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) suggest that the
supply of new homes is not keeping pace with house price variations. While real residential property prices have
expanded by 85% since 1997, new housing investment grew by only 20% over the same period. This shows that
growing demand tends to lead to higher prices rather than an expansion of construction
