Nesjamag zei:
De wet van Moore gaat ons nog compleet wegblazen. Mensen kunnen de implicaties niet zien van iets dat elke 18 maand verdubbelt. Het is doenbaar voor de menselijke geest en inbeelding tot op een bepaald punt en dan komt er een punt waarbij het iets te snel begint te gaan. Dan is het geen kwestie meer van een decennium en de (doorsnee) mens kan niet meer mee met wat er allemaal mogelijk is en verandert.
2 mooie illustraties van exponential growth curves;
"A French riddle for children illustrates another aspect of exponential growth;the apparent suddenness with which it approaches a fixed limit. Suppose you own a pond on which a water lily is growing. The lily plant doubles in size each day. If the lily were allowed to grow unchecked, it would completely cover the pond in 30 days, choking off the other forms of life in the water. For a long time the lily plant seems small, and so you decide not to worry about cutting it back until it covers half the pond. On what day will that be? On the twenty-ninth day, of course. You have one day to save your pond."
&
"According to an old legend, vizier Sissa Ben Dahir presented an Indian King Sharim with a beautiful, hand-made chessboard. The king asked what he would like in return for his gift and the courtier surprised the king by asking for one grain of rice on the first square, two grains on the second, four grains on the third etc. The king readily agreed and asked for the rice to be brought. All went well at first, but the requirement for 2 [SUP]n − 1[/SUP] grains on the nth square demanded over a million grains on the 21st square, more than a million million (aka trillion) on the 41st and there simply was not enough rice in the whole world for the final squares."
Wikipedia - Second half of the chessboard
In technology strategy, the second half of the chessboard is a phrase, coined by Ray Kurzweil,[4] in reference to the point where an exponentially growing factor begins to have a significant economic impact on an organization's overall business strategy.
While the number of grains on the first half of the chessboard is large, the amount on the second half is vastly (2[SUP]32[/SUP] > 4 billion times) larger.
The number of grains of rice on the first half of the chessboard is 1 + 2 + 4 + 8... + 2,147,483,648, for a total of 4,294,967,295 (2[SUP]32[/SUP] − 1) grains of rice, or about 100,000 kg of rice (assuming 25 mg as the mass of one grain of rice).[5] India's annual rice output is about 1,200,000 times that amount.[6]
The number of grains of rice on the second half of the chessboard is 2[SUP]32[/SUP] + 2[SUP]33[/SUP] + 2[SUP]34[/SUP] ... + 2[SUP]63[/SUP], for a total of 2[SUP]64[/SUP] − 2[SUP]32[/SUP] grains of rice (the square of the number of grains on the first half of the board plus itself). Indeed, as each square contains one grain more than the total of all the squares before it, the first square of the second half alone contains more grains than the entire first half.
On the 64th square of the chessboard alone there would be 2[SUP]63[/SUP] = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice, or more than two billion times as much as on the first half of the chessboard.
On the entire chessboard there would be 2[SUP]64[/SUP] − 1 = 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains of rice, weighing 461,168,602,000 metric tons, which would be a heap of rice larger than Mount Everest. This is around 1,000 times the global production of rice in 2010 (464,000,000 metric tons).[7]
