Now, regarding this conflict. Forget Crimea for a moment, will get there.
What happens now is Ukrainians fighting Ukrainians.. full stop.
Ukrainians elected that moron Yanukovich democratically, a majority, everyone accepted the outcome (internationally), normal democratic elections, won by slight majority but then again, Bush won over that Gore guy by how many votes? Few hundreds?
Thats it, some presidents make popular decisions, some dont. Some are more corrupted, some less, but he wasnt a dictator, he was elected as a president and should remain president untill the end of his term. By not making that popular decisions for trade agreement with EU, he angered atleast half of population. But economically it was more viable for Ukraine to survive and have some growth doing trade with Russia for a while rather than EU. It wasnt permanent but a strategic decision since Putin offered good terms.
Then a bunch of Maidan protesters come and oust the president illegaly. A puppet governemnt is sworn in, West immediately gives them support and turmoil begins. Next thing you know, there are law bills limiting Russian language (read above, Ukrainian language is only about 200 years old), Russian media etc.
So wait a minute, they didnt wait for next elections, they decided to overthrow the government, install their own puppets and oppress half of the population. Is this a democracy? Yanukovich is one stupid and greedy bastard and i am glad he is gone but not this way, we cannot have selective justice, law and costitution must be respected.
So, these new amateur polititian clowns in Kiev didnt have any tactics apart from preaching Ukraine for Ukrainians. They forgot that Crimea (see, told u i would get here) was Russian just a few decades ago and given to Ukraine as a present by a drunk bold fuck Khrouschev (he was Ukrainian, duh)... thats the guy who took his shoe off and started banging on the table during UN summit. (search Youtube "Khruschev- We will bury you"). Putin did not miss an opportunity, Russia had 25.000 troop contingent there as part of Black sea fleet. Nobody forced them to vote at the gunpoint, they overtook regional administration building just like in other parts of Eastern Ukraine but Ukrain didnt have balls to send troops there and face 25.000 Russian army. This is why they had freedom to install their own administration and their own elections. Perfect example of self-determination. They had a choice to become an autonomy, federative state or become part of Russia. Thats what they did. Now, some will think why would Russia risk so much for a tiny piece of land. Well, Crimea was a spark that caused the fire, other regions also wanted self determination since Ukrainian governemnt did not respect their rights, they did not elect them.
So, stop blaming Russia for whatever happened in Ukraine but another clan of corrupted polititians and nationalists as bad as Yanukovich.
Ukraine will break up, its game over.