Kleine Beursfeiten

coldvinc zei:
Holy shit van 4 USD naar 247 USD.
Klik om te vergroten...

Wel een enorm casino aandeel. 5 jaar na elkaar negatieve EBITDA, EBIT en nettowinst; dan in 2023 met dalende omzet voor het eerst positieve resultaten en daarna stijgt het aandeel met een factor 30.
P/E ratio wordt nu geschat op ~200x en toch zijn de analysten nu enthousiast met ongeveer 40% die een koopadvies afgeven :thinking:
Ik heb toch weer de indruk dat de meeste van die adviezen serieus achterlopen (super positief nadat de grote koersgroei al voorbij is) en het gemiddelde koersdoel van die analysten jojo't gewoon op en neer met de werkelijke koers +/- een klein percentage.
 
Spooky zei:
normaal gezien leert de geschiedenis dat zo'n aandeel iets minder daalt dan het effectieve dividend, maar met onze 30% voorheffing zijn we natuurlijk wel gesjareld hier in België
Klik om te vergroten...

Een habbekrats gewonnen met gisteren te verkopen en vanmorgen meteen terug te kopen. :laugh:
 
Op het Berkshire - forum, las ik volgende interessante analyse over Prosus. Zijn er nog mensen die instappen ? Hier net een positie genomen.

took a deeper look at it recently. Some highlights
  • Prosus MC 100B ($114B value of their Tencent)
  • Prosus buybacks (selling Tencent) created $32B in value from June'22 to June'24
    • This increases Prosus effective ownership of Tencent, a fact missed by many as they see them selling Tencent.
  • Tencent buyback from 2023-2024 Q3, Prosus share is $5.5B (Total buybacks $22B, Prosus owns 25%)
Margin of safety
  • $14B Tencent value over Prosus MC
  • Swiggy could be their next homerun (has potential to be a $100B in next 5 years. Prosus owns 25%)
    • Food delivery business overall doing well, iFood I think is bigger than Swiggy
  • If nothing happens in next 2 years and Prosus and Tencent buybacks continue at same pace
    • ~$40B of additional value created (again doing nothing different and doesn't require any positive assumptions)
  • All their other pf holdings (feel free to write this to zero if you like)
I will add a note about Tencent leadership. I have been listening to their cc for years and it's an absolute joy, I look forward to it. I think they are one of the best megacap leadership teams in the world. This adds a huge (unquantifiable) margin of safety imo. The numbers Tencent is putting up in a weak macro is great. Once sentiment around China turns and the economy recovers it'll be a $2T company very quickly. But you don't need any of this to happen.

Bottom line, I'm struggling to see how you lose with Prosus (other than tencent / China meltdown).

Two things that mildly concern me though
  • This nonsense about how AI is a differentiator (they should realize they're a holding company and not try to develop AI capabilities that all their PF companies will benefit from). Throwing money after the latest fad. Hopefully it's not the new CEO trying to make his mark.
  • Many of their holdings seem mediocre and WILL not move the needle. But there's no effort to sell and reduce distraction to management
 
Walter zei:
Op het Berkshire - forum, las ik volgende interessante analyse over Prosus. Zijn er nog mensen die instappen ? Hier net een positie genomen.

took a deeper look at it recently. Some highlights
  • Prosus MC 100B ($114B value of their Tencent)
  • Prosus buybacks (selling Tencent) created $32B in value from June'22 to June'24
    • This increases Prosus effective ownership of Tencent, a fact missed by many as they see them selling Tencent.
  • Tencent buyback from 2023-2024 Q3, Prosus share is $5.5B (Total buybacks $22B, Prosus owns 25%)
Margin of safety
  • $14B Tencent value over Prosus MC
  • Swiggy could be their next homerun (has potential to be a $100B in next 5 years. Prosus owns 25%)
    • Food delivery business overall doing well, iFood I think is bigger than Swiggy
  • If nothing happens in next 2 years and Prosus and Tencent buybacks continue at same pace
    • ~$40B of additional value created (again doing nothing different and doesn't require any positive assumptions)
  • All their other pf holdings (feel free to write this to zero if you like)
I will add a note about Tencent leadership. I have been listening to their cc for years and it's an absolute joy, I look forward to it. I think they are one of the best megacap leadership teams in the world. This adds a huge (unquantifiable) margin of safety imo. The numbers Tencent is putting up in a weak macro is great. Once sentiment around China turns and the economy recovers it'll be a $2T company very quickly. But you don't need any of this to happen.

Bottom line, I'm struggling to see how you lose with Prosus (other than tencent / China meltdown).

Two things that mildly concern me though
  • This nonsense about how AI is a differentiator (they should realize they're a holding company and not try to develop AI capabilities that all their PF companies will benefit from). Throwing money after the latest fad. Hopefully it's not the new CEO trying to make his mark.
  • Many of their holdings seem mediocre and WILL not move the needle. But there's no effort to sell and reduce distraction to management
Klik om te vergroten...
heb deze ook en zie die Tencent verkopen + buybacks ook als extreem positief
 
Walter zei:
Op het Berkshire - forum, las ik volgende interessante analyse over Prosus. Zijn er nog mensen die instappen ? Hier net een positie genomen.

took a deeper look at it recently. Some highlights
  • Prosus MC 100B ($114B value of their Tencent)
  • Prosus buybacks (selling Tencent) created $32B in value from June'22 to June'24
    • This increases Prosus effective ownership of Tencent, a fact missed by many as they see them selling Tencent.
  • Tencent buyback from 2023-2024 Q3, Prosus share is $5.5B (Total buybacks $22B, Prosus owns 25%)
Margin of safety
  • $14B Tencent value over Prosus MC
  • Swiggy could be their next homerun (has potential to be a $100B in next 5 years. Prosus owns 25%)
    • Food delivery business overall doing well, iFood I think is bigger than Swiggy
  • If nothing happens in next 2 years and Prosus and Tencent buybacks continue at same pace
    • ~$40B of additional value created (again doing nothing different and doesn't require any positive assumptions)
  • All their other pf holdings (feel free to write this to zero if you like)
I will add a note about Tencent leadership. I have been listening to their cc for years and it's an absolute joy, I look forward to it. I think they are one of the best megacap leadership teams in the world. This adds a huge (unquantifiable) margin of safety imo. The numbers Tencent is putting up in a weak macro is great. Once sentiment around China turns and the economy recovers it'll be a $2T company very quickly. But you don't need any of this to happen.

Bottom line, I'm struggling to see how you lose with Prosus (other than tencent / China meltdown).

Two things that mildly concern me though
  • This nonsense about how AI is a differentiator (they should realize they're a holding company and not try to develop AI capabilities that all their PF companies will benefit from). Throwing money after the latest fad. Hopefully it's not the new CEO trying to make his mark.
  • Many of their holdings seem mediocre and WILL not move the needle. But there's no effort to sell and reduce distraction to management
Klik om te vergroten...
Ik had die al een tijd in portefeuille (gekocht aan 38,2€), lange tijd zwaar onder water gestaan. Maar ik heb ze gehouden en nu klein pluske. Voorlopig zie ik geen reden om ze te verkopen.
 
Spooky zei:
nope, die familie denkt alleen aan zichzelf, niet aan de kleine aandeelhouder + véél te veel schulden nu op zowel niveau Belron als holding.

Jij?
Klik om te vergroten...
Nee, ik heb ze ook niet terug gekocht. Vind het inderdaad ook niet proper wat ze geflikt hebben, en inderdaad na die transactie zit Belron met veel schulden en heeft de familie geen middelen om interessante aankopen te doen.

Ik heb nu in de plaats Melexis opgepikt aan 55,5€, tot nu toe al geen miskoop ;)
 
Je moet ingelogd zijn om te kunnen reageren. Aanmelden | Registreren

Vergelijkbare onderwerpen

StannekeS
  • Vastgepind
Aandelen voor beginners
Reacties
0
Weergaven
2K
StannekeS
StannekeS
StannekeS
  • Vastgepind
ETF's voor beginners
Reacties
5
Weergaven
3K
Straddle
Straddle
FernandoFreecashflow
Adobe Systems (ADBE) - Software voor creatieve professionals, documentbeheer, marketing & analytics
Reacties
10
Weergaven
1K
Gassy
G
Terug
Bovenaan